When I was younger, I used to worry that the world population seemed to be increasing forever. I was concerned that this at least would have a very bad effect environmentally.
However World Population is predicted to decline
Right now, in most countries, the birth rate is way below replacement. Replacement rate is considered to be 2.1 kids per woman.
The big questions in my mind are WHY and WHAT would need to be done to bring the rate up to a sustainable level. See below
RIGHT NOW
| COUNTRY |
Rate 2024
|
| Australia |
1.5 |
South Korea
|
0.72 |
| Japan |
1.37 |
| USA |
1.79 |
| UK |
1.44 |
| France |
1.68 |
| Sweden |
1.5 |
| China |
1.71 |
North Korea
|
1.5-1.8 |
Africa
|
4.16 |
EFFECTS (lots of people seem to comment on effects with fewer pondering the why and what to do)
Less Innovation- Young people do most of the innovation.
House prices - I think they will tank.
Retirement - I understand that a lot of Australia's retirement income is tied up in residential investment real-estate. If this crashed then they will end up on welfare.
Superannuation - A lot of Australia's super funds, have, I believe, invested in property.
Less consumption- Older people consume less. They have the stuff they need. They don't need to buy things for kids or setting them selves up.
Robots may take the place of workers but robots don't buy stuff.
investing - i would imagine with Less consumption, we will need less mining and less manufactured goods.
Fewer cars.
Positive thoughts:
transport of food from country to city.
travel for cashed up older people.
Watching sport.
Taxi
Health care. Physio. Drugs. Therapy. Diet.
THOUGHTS
IF a woman has a kid, how many do they typically have?
I understand it, that IF a mother has one kid, they are likely to have 2 or 3. It sounds like a zero to one problem. But is there data to show this?
Is it some in built genetic or biological response to global over population? Some kind of environmental feedback process where the world somehow recognises the stress that us humans are placing on the planet?
Expectations on Women - I think that society has made a lot of changes to remove many of the institutional barriers to women. ie one can not discriminate in employment selection on the basis of gender. BUT at the same time, we have not really changed the way that employment works. like we essentially say to a women: "If you want to work, then you have to work like a man - 9-5, 5 days a week and drinks after work on Friday's".
Value of Mothering - Another expectation that seems to have been placed on women is an expectation that they pursue professional careers. A woman seems to be judged on her career and motherhood is not given status. In a group, when each woman is asked what they do, a stay at home mum is likely to say "just a mum". In my view, this is reinforced by the provision of child care- You are more valuable in the workforce and "the system" can process your kid through for a small fee. In my view it takes away the essence of mothering. Those caring and loving and protection that mothers bring.
Fathering - I think dads have been written out of the picture. The phrase "Toxic Masculinity" is rolled out to describe the sort of stuff that guys do. On the news, I hear a description of a bunch of guys bush bashing in 4WD's reported as demonstrating testosterone, roughness and an example of toxic masculinity. Secondly, no fault divorce and the associated financial settlement is seen by guys that if the woman gets unhappy and leaves then the guy will keep paying the bills but have no or minimal contact and influence or involvement. When I say this, the response I get is that my attention is drawn to the extreme of the violent ex husbands (who definitely do exist) but it's extended to imply all men are violent, nasty, misogynistic, detached bastards. I do think that we should continue to have no fault divorce. To me, once a couple have fallen apart, we should not be putting legal road blocks in place. They do after all effectively dis-empower people and in particular women.
IMMIGRATION - I ponder if there is a moral problem associated with immigration. We drain less developed countries of their young professionals. I imagine these are the people that those countries need.
ECONOMICS - Old
WHY
Reasons that are given include:
Education of women.
Too expensive
Women in the workforce.
Less religiosity
Men apparently also resisting getting married. Apparently one reason is the fear that they will loose a lot of their financial assets in the event of a divorce.
WHAT COULD BE DONE
Educate Women - That after age 30 a woman's fertility drops significantly. ie show them what is the window of fertility.
Work Life Balance -
Reduce Cost of having kids
Pay girls
Make it Normal to have kids
Easy to travel with Kids - Free train travel.
I understand that a number of countries have tried particular actions and that none have proven successful.
I think in essence, it comes
SIMULATING
It would be interesting to find some simulations and to understand what parameters go in and how that affects the outcome
