Search This Blog

Friday, April 10, 2020

Covd-19 Probabilities and Generalisations

What is my probability of catching the virus?
Not everyone who encounters an infected individual will contract the virus [1]
[2] 14% of people who have covid-19 get it severe enough to go to hospital.
Confirmed cases leading to death is between 0.9 and 3.4%

If I am in contact with someone who has it (even if they don't know), How long until I see symptoms
How long does it take to get coronavirus after contact?
This is called the incubation period, and can take up to 14 days. We now know that the average time between catching Coronavirus and developing symptoms is around 5 days. The quarantine rules about how long to stay at home are based on the knowledge of the maximum time to develop symptoms. Once this time has passed, with no symptoms, a potential contact is considered clear.

If I do catch it,
What is the probability of having to go to ICU
Of dieing



[1] https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/71160
[2] https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-19/coronavirus-odds-of-survival
[3] https://www.growmedical.com.au/blog/guide-to-coronavirus-for-brisbane

No comments:

Post a Comment