Franks Blog: Covit-19 End Game

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Covit-19 End Game

END GAME
I ponder the end game. What is the plan or philosophy that our polies are trying to implement?

I know we have been hearing the message "Flattening the Curve". I understand that means slow the spread so that we do not end up with more people in ICU than we have places in ICU to accept them.

BUT what finish line are we trying for? How does this all end?

Are we going for herd immunity?
If this is our approach, then most us will get it. It's just a matter of when!

Are we trying to stop the spread all together?
If this is our approach then after it all dies down, it means there is a huge reservoir of people who are susceptible to the virus. And how will we know we really have killed it off? What about overseas? It would seem to me that this is a very risky approach.

OTHER QUESTIONS IN MY MIND
How do we balance physical health with mental health.

There is evidence that sunshine and fresh air gave very noticeable improvements to patents recovering from the 1918 pandemic. So why are we being told to stay inside. Yesterday the NSW police minister said lying down in a public park was unacceptable. You'd think it was safer to lie in the sun on your own in a park than being cooped up inside.

Why are people not allowed to go out in their tinnies?

PREDICTIONS
I would like to see modelling that shows the predicted number of deaths as a function of different strategies.

Then we could apply some perspective. For example we have about 1000 deaths a year in Queensland alone from motor vehicle accidents and apparently the suicide rate is double that. So far in Queensland 3 deaths from Corona virus.

Now I certainly do not want to get it. Don't get me wrong. I am not of the view of this is just another bad cold. I have been ventilated. In more recent years, if I get a cold, I tend to spend two weeks off work coughing up phlegm.